Bitcoin crosses $150k — $84,200 WITH$31,400 AGAINST Fed cuts rates before year end — $22,800 WITH$67,100 AGAINST Apple announces foldable iPhone before year end — $9,400 WITH$44,200 AGAINST S&P 500 ends year above 6,000 — $118,000 WITH$54,300 AGAINST Tesla below $200 before year end — $7,200 WITH$29,800 AGAINST UK inflation falls below 2% before year end — $41,500 WITH$93,200 AGAINST Ethereum flips Bitcoin — $33,100 WITH$71,800 AGAINST OpenAI releases a new flagship model before Q4 2026 — $56,900 WITH$24,300 AGAINST Gold hits $3,500 per oz — $47,200 WITH$38,600 AGAINST Elon posts 20+ times in one day — $12,400 WITH$8,900 AGAINST Hamilton wins a race for Ferrari this season — $61,700 WITH$49,200 AGAINST Apple releases foldable iPhone — $28,300 WITH$74,100 AGAINST UK inflation falls below 2% before year end — $53,800 WITH$67,400 AGAINST Oil hits $100 a barrel — $39,500 WITH$82,700 AGAINST Bitcoin crosses $150k — $84,200 WITH$31,400 AGAINST Fed cuts rates before year end — $22,800 WITH$67,100 AGAINST Apple announces foldable iPhone before year end — $9,400 WITH$44,200 AGAINST S&P 500 ends year above 6,000 — $118,000 WITH$54,300 AGAINST Tesla below $200 before year end — $7,200 WITH$29,800 AGAINST UK inflation falls below 2% before year end — $41,500 WITH$93,200 AGAINST Ethereum flips Bitcoin — $33,100 WITH$71,800 AGAINST OpenAI releases a new flagship model before Q4 2026 — $56,900 WITH$24,300 AGAINST Gold hits $3,500 per oz — $47,200 WITH$38,600 AGAINST Elon posts 20+ times in one day — $12,400 WITH$8,900 AGAINST Hamilton wins a race for Ferrari this season — $61,700 WITH$49,200 AGAINST Apple releases foldable iPhone — $28,300 WITH$74,100 AGAINST UK inflation falls below 2% before year end — $53,800 WITH$67,400 AGAINST Oil hits $100 a barrel — $39,500 WITH$82,700 AGAINST
Conviction market — launching soon

WITH AGAINST

A market that rewards conviction, not trading.

Post a claim. Fill both sides. Hold until reality decides. The correct side shares everything the other side put in.

Both sides must fill before the pool activates. If either side misses — everyone gets refunded.

Prediction markets let you trade opinions. WithAgainst makes you live with them.

2
Sides. Always.
0
Exits before expiry
1
Thing that settles it
Try it — no money, no signup

Feel how it
actually works

Pick a claim. Choose your side. Watch both sides fill toward the target. If both hit — the pool activates and reality settles it. If one side misses — everyone gets refunded. The whole mechanic in 60 seconds.

Early core participants on large pools have walked away with 10x their commitment. Nobody knew that when they committed. That is the point.

Claims people are making right now
Will oil hit $100 again?
Ronaldo scores 50 goals this season
China invades Taiwan before 2030
Next Oscar best picture goes to AI film
Next Pope is African
01Pick Claim
02Take Position
03Pool Fills
04Resolution
Active claim
Current pool status
WITH
0 / 20
Core slots remaining
AGAINST
0 / 20
Core slots remaining
Your commitment
Simulation only — no real money involved
WITH / AGAINST
120
To resolution
Your position
Waiting for both sides to fill 0%
WITH
0 / 20
Filling core...
AGAINST
0 / 20
Filling core...
WITH pool total
$0
AGAINST pool total
$0
Live entries
You Called It.
Your commitment
$50
Your pool share
Total received
$0
Simulation only. No real money. Platform not yet live.
What you need to understand

The world is full of loud opinions. We just added a settlement mechanism.

This is the first financial instrument for the group chat.

Conviction Without Opposition Is Just Noise
Both sides must fill their target before the pool activates. One side alone proves nothing. It takes two sides of genuine belief to make a claim worth settling. After both sides fill, the pool grows however it grows — a large imbalance on the opposing side means a large return for the correct side.
You Are Rewarded For Recruiting Doubters
If your side fills but the other side is slow, you are financially motivated to find people who disagree with you. Share the pool with opponents. Argue your case. You need the other side to fill as much as your own. This loop exists because of ego, not economics — you want a larger audience for being right. This is the only conviction market where that is true — and it is the mechanic that makes it viral.
Early Conviction Is Always Worth More
Commit while core slots remain and you receive the best share of the distribution. Once the target fills, extra slots open — and every extra entry on the opposing side adds 20% of their commitment directly to the core pool. The platform rewards those who backed their belief before the crowd arrived. Late capital does not dilute early conviction. It funds it.
You Committed. You Hold.
Capital stays locked until reality settles it. You can enter the opposing side to manage exposure — but both positions lock. There is no withdrawal. No escape hatch. No changing your mind when the pressure builds. On social media, being wrong has no consequence. The post disappears. The argument moves on. Here, being wrong costs money. That is not a restriction. That is what conviction means.
A Claim That Cannot Fill Both Sides Was Not Worth Making
If either side misses its target, the pool cancels automatically. Full refund to everyone. No fee. No settlement. Conviction that cannot attract genuine opposition does not deserve a result. Your capital is always protected from pools that were not worth settling.
The Wrong Side Funds The Correct Side. Entirely.
When the claim resolves, the entire opposing pool is distributed to the correct side after the platform fee. Your share is proportional to your commitment. The math is transparent and shown at settlement. Those who were wrong funded those who were right. You do not just receive the distribution — you receive validation with a financial receipt attached. That is the entire model.
How money flows
Both sides hit target. The claim resolves. Here is exactly what happens next.
WITH — Core
$2,400
20 core entries
AGAINST — Core
$2,000
20 core entries
WITH — Extra
$180
3 overflow entries
AGAINST — Extra
$300
5 overflow entries
Claim resolves — WITH correct
Total pool
$4,880
Platform fee (6%)
Service Fee for Truth
− $293
Distributed to WITH side
$4,587
Example — core WITH participant with heavy opposing extras
⚡ The 20% Core Boost
20% of every opposing extra flows directly to core participants as a bonus on top of their core share.
The more opponents join after activation, the richer core participants become. Early believers are the platform's VIPs. The pool never goes quiet.
Commitment
$120
Pool share
5%
of WITH core
Received
$335
$215 profit
Core participants share the bulk of the opposing pool proportionally by commitment amount. Extra participants share the overflow. The wrong side receives nothing — their capital funded the distribution entirely.
Why this exists
Social media gave ego a megaphone. We gave it a price tag.

The world is full of loud opinions. We just added a settlement mechanism.

This is the first financial instrument for the group chat. Every argument on Twitter. Every WhatsApp debate. Every pub disagreement. You have been making predictions your whole life — about markets, sport, politics, the world.

But it costs you nothing to be wrong.

So nobody knows how much you actually believe any of it. Including you.

The real competition is not a trading platform. It is the group chat. Every one of those has conviction. None of them has a settlement mechanism.

WithAgainst is that settlement mechanism.

No promises. No exits. No excuses.
Just conviction — and the cost of being wrong.


The market is every argument ever made. It has never had a settlement mechanism. Until now.
About this platform
WithAgainst is a conviction market — a new category entirely. Not a sportsbook. Not a trading platform. Not a prediction market where you can exit when the price moves against you. It is a two-sided commitment pool where both sides must fill before the claim activates, everyone holds to expiry, and reality settles it. Conviction deserves its own game. This is that game.
Every pool has a minimum number of entries required per side — set by the claim poster within platform-defined limits. This ensures the pool is worth settling before resolution triggers. Core entries fill the target and receive the best distribution structure. Extra entries are overflow — still accepted, still participate, but with a smaller proportional return if the right side is correct.
If either side has not reached its core target by the time the event resolves, the pool cancels automatically. Every participant on both sides receives a full refund. No platform fee is taken. No settlement occurs. A pool that could not attract genuine two-sided conviction was not worth settling.
The Time-Decaying Threshold. If a pool reaches 60% fill on either side within 48 hours, the activation target automatically steps down to meet the real level of conviction in the market. The pool activates at genuine demand rather than waiting indefinitely for an over-ambitious target. If it still cannot fill, you receive a full refund. Your capital is never permanently locked in a dead pool.
It cannot. Early conviction is structurally protected. Core participants — those who entered while core slots remained — receive the best share of the distribution plus 20% of everything the opposing extra participants commit after the target fills. Late capital entering on the opposing side does not dilute early conviction. It funds it. The earlier you commit, the more every late entry on the other side works in your favour.
Every claim must be tied to a verifiable data source at the time of posting — a sports result API, a financial data feed, an official election result. When the event resolves, the outcome is pulled automatically and applied to the pool. The correct side receives the entire opposing pool distributed proportionally by commitment after the 6% service fee. The calculation is shown transparently at settlement.

In the event of a disputed or unverifiable outcome, the pool is voided and 100% of capital is returned to all participants. No platform fee is taken. No exceptions.
No position can be withdrawn once entered. You can enter the opposing side to attempt to manage your exposure — but this creates a second locked position, not a guaranteed neutral outcome. Both positions stay locked until resolution or cancellation. If the pool cancels, both positions are refunded in full.
The platform takes 6% of the total resolved pool — a service fee for truth, not a house take on a bet. We earn only when both sides fill, the claim resolves, and reality delivers a result. Cancelled pools generate nothing. This directly aligns our interests with pool quality — we only earn when conviction on both sides was real enough to activate.
Every claim must name a Trusted Oracle at pool creation — a specific, publicly accessible data source that produces a binary outcome. Approved sources include: Bloomberg Terminal closing prices, SEC EDGAR filings, official central bank statements (Federal Reserve, Bank of England), NASA/ESA official mission pages, named peer-reviewed benchmark publications, and Official Charts Company or Billboard data, and official sporting data APIs including Opta and Sportradar for verified match and competition results. These are publicly verifiable, unambiguous, and cannot be edited after the fact. The oracle is locked at creation and cannot be changed. If the primary oracle is unavailable at resolution, a named fallback activates. If both sources are unavailable or contradict each other, the pool is voided and all capital returned in full. The platform never interprets outcomes. The data decides. Always.
We are currently assessing the regulatory landscape across the UK, EU, US, and other markets. We will launch only in jurisdictions where we have determined a clear and compliant operating path. The waitlist does not commit you to anything — it simply registers your interest.

With us
or not?

2,841
On the waitlist
$214k
Simulated volume
847
Claims created

Get early access when we launch. First access when we launch. Your conviction. On record.

Noted. We'll be in touch before launch.

No spam. One email when we launch. That's it.

Want to go deeper? Read the thesis → → Read concept document