Prediction markets let you trade opinions. WithAgainst makes you live with them.
WithAgainst is a market where people commit capital on their own beliefs and hold their position until reality proves them right or wrong.
It is not a betting platform. It is not a prediction market. It is not social media.
It is a conviction exchange. The first market where the pricing signal is personal conviction rather than abstract probability — held to expiry, settled by reality.
"Conviction is cheap because it costs nothing. WithAgainst is the consequence layer."
Every day billions of people make predictions, assert opinions, and argue positions. They do it on X. In WhatsApp groups. In offices. None of it means anything. There is no consequence. No accountability. No reward for being right. No cost for being wrong.
The loudest voices win regardless of accuracy. Conviction is cheap because it costs nothing.
Prediction markets exist but they are abstract and impersonal. You bet on an event. You never put your own capital behind a claim you made publicly. And critically — you can always exit. Which means you never truly committed.
WithAgainst makes conviction tradeable. Anyone posts a claim. Commits real capital. The market opens immediately — two sides, live, simultaneously. Participants choose WITH or AGAINST. Money flows to both sides in real time. Odds adjust automatically. Everyone holds until the event resolves. Reality settles it.
The person who was right early, who stayed convicted, who read the market correctly — wins. Everyone else funds their return.
Step 1 — The Claim. Any registered user posts a binary claim about a future outcome. It must be binary, resolvable against a verified data source, and time-bound.
Step 2 — The Commitment. The poster commits their own capital on the claim being true. No commitment, no claim. Conviction without capital means nothing.
Step 3 — The Pool Opens. Both sides open simultaneously from second one. WITH or AGAINST. No phases. No waiting.
Step 4 — The Target. Each pool has a minimum entry target per side set by the caller within platform limits. Participants who enter while core slots remain get the best return structure. Once the target fills, extra slots open at a smaller proportional return.
Step 5 — Hold To Expiry. No early exits. No withdrawals. You can add to positions on either side. You can enter the opposing side to attempt to manage exposure. But you cannot withdraw capital before resolution.
Step 6 — Exposure Management. Entering the opposing side is not a guaranteed cancellation. It creates a second locked position at current market rates. Whether the two positions net close to flat depends on market conditions at each entry point. The market prices indecision — and charges for it.
Step 7 — Settlement. When both sides hit target and the event resolves, the correct side shares the entire opposing pool. Core participants receive their proportional share plus 20% of opposing extra entries as a boost. Extra participants share the remaining 80% of opposing extras. Platform takes 6%.
The target ensures every pool is worth settling before it activates. Both sides must believe enough to fill their core slots. After that the pool grows however it grows — a large imbalance on the opposing side means a large return for the correct side. The 20% boost to core participants means they are financially rewarded for every opponent who joins after the pool activates.
If either side misses its core target by resolution time the pool cancels automatically. Full refund to all participants. No platform fee. A pool that could not attract genuine two-sided conviction was not worth settling. This protects participants and ensures the platform only earns on pools that delivered a real experience.
"The pool only pays when both sides believe enough to commit. That is the entire philosophy."
| Type | Window | Examples | Function |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sprint | Sub 48 hours | Match results, intraday price moves | Daily habit. Core engagement loop. |
| Marathon | Weeks to months | Elections, earnings, macro calls | Reputation-defining. High stakes. |
| Archetype | Behaviour | Role in Ecosystem |
|---|---|---|
| The Caller | Posts and holds | Anchors the pool. Takes most upside if right. |
| Core Participant | Enters while core slots remain | Best return structure. Gets 20% boost from opposing extras. |
| Extra Participant | Enters after target fills | Smaller proportional return. Still participates in upside. |
| Sophisticated Participant | Strategic positioning | Manages exposure. Still contributes liquidity. |
| Opponent Recruiter | Shares pool with opposition after filling | Unique to WithAgainst. Financially motivated to recruit opponents. |
| Late Entrant | Enters crowded side late | Poor risk/reward. Enriches early participants. |
| Spectator | Watches and follows | Largest group. Primary conversion funnel. |
All participants are anonymous by default. Claims stand alone. The market prices the idea, not the person behind it. This removes the single largest psychological barrier to participation.
Participants can optionally display a verified track record — win/loss ratio, accuracy score — without revealing identity. A number and a history. No name. No face. More compelling than a known identity because the record speaks entirely through performance.
The MVP proves one thing: the core mechanic works. A claim posts, two sides form, returns price dynamically, the pool holds to expiry, reality settles it, correct side receives their distribution. Everything else is roadmap.
The entire WithAgainst thesis rests on a single behavioural hypothesis: that holding to expiry creates a fundamentally different experience that people actually want. The MVP exists specifically to test four things:
"This is what seed funding buys: the answer to whether hold-to-expiry is to conviction markets what the like button was to social media."
Clean. Transparent. Automatic. One transaction per pool. The platform is incentivised purely by pool volume. We never take a position on any outcome.
| Revenue Stream | Status | Model |
|---|---|---|
| Settlement fee | MVP | 6% of total settled pool |
| Premium accounts | Post-MVP | Larger caps, analytics, featured placement |
| Verified status | Post-MVP | Annual subscription — institutional tier |
| Media partnerships | Post-MVP | Revenue share on embedded pool volume |
No inventory. No content creation cost. No editorial team. Claims are user-generated. Settlement is automated. Liquidity is self-generating. The marginal cost of an additional pool settling is effectively zero beyond infrastructure.
Every pool is shareable. Every claim generates a unique link. "I just committed $200 on this — with me or against me?" shared to X, WhatsApp, TikTok. Each share is a direct acquisition event into a live pool already in progress. The product markets itself through the act of participation.
Polymarket reached over $10 billion in trading volume in 2025 and received investment at a $2 billion valuation. Traditional sports betting markets exceed $200 billion annually. Social trading platforms have demonstrated that the intersection of financial behaviour and social identity is one of the most powerful product categories in consumer fintech.
WithAgainst is not competing with any of these directly. It is creating a new category — the conviction exchange — that sits at the intersection of all of them.
"Every existing platform asks: What will happen? WithAgainst asks: Do you believe it enough to stake on it?"
No platform currently combines: anonymous personal conviction as the tradeable instrument; target-based pool activation requiring both sides to fill; hold-to-expiry with no guaranteed exits; the 20% core boost that keeps participants recruiting after activation; automatic cancellation protection; and two-directional viral sharing built into every pool. This combination is the product.
Regulatory classification is the single most important question facing this business before launch. The product's mechanics — committing money on future binary outcomes, held to expiry, settled by a verified real-world event — will be assessed by regulators on substance, not framing.
This is not a solved problem. It is the first thing to resolve before any capital is committed to development.
The hold-to-expiry mechanic, the target pool structure, the 20% core boost, and the absence of a house position are structural features that differentiate this product from a traditional betting exchange. Whether that differentiation is sufficient for a cleaner regulatory classification is a legal question, not a product question.
Billions of people make predictions every day. None of it costs anything. None of it means anything. Conviction is free — and therefore worthless. The world has no way to price human conviction.
WithAgainst — the world's first conviction exchange. Post a claim. Fill both sides. Hold to expiry. Reality pays one. A target-based two-sided conviction pool where both sides must fill before settlement triggers — and where you are financially motivated to recruit your opponents.
Polymarket hit $10B+ volume in 2025. Sports betting is $200B+ globally. Social trading platforms have proven financial identity products scale. The specific combination WithAgainst is building does not exist anywhere.
The core innovation is the mechanic: hold-to-expiry with target-based activation, core/extra distinction, and no guaranteed exits. This single rule changes participant behaviour completely. It cannot be replicated by adding a feature to an existing platform — it requires rebuilding the product around a fundamentally different philosophy.
Seed Round — Amount TBD. Use of funds: regulatory counsel across primary jurisdictions (first priority), MVP technical build, initial market launch, team — CTO, legal lead, product.
WithAgainst is building. Join the waitlist for early access
to the first conviction markets on the platform.